Looking back on 2012 as a Dutch voter is painful. It leaves me with all these questions that - once answered - always lead to more questions. It can be confusing and infuriating at the same time. You should try it yourself. Start by asking yourself the following question: "Why did I vote for Mark Rutte and the VVD again in 2012?" The answer will be: "To avoid a left wing PvdA government". That is not what happened, did it? And the same goes for PvdA voters, they have had a similar experience in the opposite direction.
How stupid the decision of Samsom and Rutte was to form a coalition of just those two parties will become apparent in 2013 (if it hasn't already in 2012), when the lack of a majority in the Senate (Eerste Kamer) will prove to be an act of arrogance as the whole swift formation process in itself was. Exchanging subjects to avoid concessions has been the biggest concession of them all.
I predict a fall of Rutte II in 2013 or 2014, due to the Senate not passing very important legislation and parties not willing to take any more beating of their voters when asked to renegotiate agreements.
I remember I voted for Rutte to stay away from 'more Europe' and extended support for Greece. He was very firm on both subjects. Within three months after he repeatedly said 'no more money to Greece' (before the elections), he has confirmed that he has broken that promise, leaving his voters with many questions. I also remember voting for Rutte to stop or at least cut back on Third World Development & Aid spending. The past 30 years of Ministries of Development & Aid for poor countries have proven my point, as the vast majority of the plans sponsored by these Santa Claus (Sinterklaas) ministers has proven to have had no lasting impact whatsoever. I am not against helping the neediest of all, but I am against big, slow, bureaucratic institutions filled with clerks whose only interest is next year's budget and not the actual results made in the target countries. The public sector supporting the public sector is about keeping each other alive and needy. Not about solving problems. That is what private projects do as they have to account for results to get more funding. Anyway, a vote for the VVD was a vote for large cuts on Development & Aid spending. What happened? The Minister of Santa Claus returned!
I know a lot of people voted for Rutte to keep their Mortgage deduction intact, as they feared for their own budgets once the deduction would be cut. It was safe with Rutte, he promised. Well, it was gone after the first meeting with Samsom of the PvdA. More questions to why we voted for Rutte.
The VVD has a huge problem with Rutte, he has become their main liability. Their political leader is still Prime Minister of The Netherlands, but he can never run for this office again, unless he reaches World Peace and solves the financial and economical crises in 3 years time. He has proven to be a cold liar and a promise breaker, just to stay in power. People might forget this in 4 years, but the opposition will not. So, the VVD will have to come up with a new leader and that has proven to be at least challenging the last few times... I will tell you what will happen. While handing over the keys of the Netherlands to Europe, Rutte will claim a nice position for himself, maybe he can replace the boring Van Rompuy as European President. It is the only way for the VVD to start the change of leadership in time for the new elections and it will be the only way for Rutte to leave some of his reputation intact, which will be shattered in the next elections. I predict the new VVD leader will be Hans van Baalen.
The when question is harder to answer. It depends on the PvdA. How much will they be willing to give to the VVD once new negotiations are required due to lack of support in the Senate. The answer will be in the polls... if and when the time is ripe, the PvdA will show its true face and will have the VVD blow up the coalition, so they can seize power. Depending on economic projections, this could be in 2013 already. Knowing the VVD from the inside, I am sure talks are already ongoing on the new leadership and when Rutte should leave for Europe. Given the Senate minority, time is not on their side, so I expect Rutte to leave already in 2013. That could normally be seen as breaking electoral promises to the voters, as he would leave office early, but since Rutte has already broken almost all promises he made before the elections, the voters will not be offended anymore and the liability will be on the next guy... to be continued.
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